Trump 2.0: America’s Payback Toward BRICS Retaliation?

Explore how Donald Trump’s return and the BRICS de-dollarisation agenda could reshape global trade, trigger new tariffs, and challenge the U.S. dollar’s dominance.

~ Nicholas Limarco, Finance Analyst at CIH

The BRICS+ Challenge

In recent years, BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) has grown beyond just a geopolitical acronym. It has evolved into BRICS+, a coalition of over a dozen emerging economies aiming to shift the global balance of power. Together, these nations now contribute over 32% of global GDP (PPP-adjusted), surpassing the G7.

At the heart of their ambition lies a common goal: de-dollarisation. This means reducing reliance on the U.S. dollar for international trade, reserves, and financial infrastructure. During the 16th BRICS Summit in Kazan (2024), delegates pushed harder for an alternative payments system to the SWIFT network and floated the idea of a BRICS reserve currency backed by commodities like gold or oil.

These moves aren’t just symbolic, they’re strategic. De-dollarisation weakens U.S. monetary leverage globally, making it harder for the U.S. to impose sanctions or control capital flows.

Trump’s Comeback: From Trade War to Currency War?

With Donald Trump returning as the presumptive 47th U.S. president, the tone of global trade is set to harden again. His first term weaponized tariffs, especially against China, under the guise of protecting U.S. industry. In September 2024, he escalated rhetoric, threatening "universal tariffs" on any nation supporting BRICS-led de-dollarisation.

This isn't just tough talk. Trump's tariff strategy is rooted in an "America First" economic nationalism that prioritizes domestic manufacturing and capital repatriation. For BRICS nations, that means direct economic retaliation: expect duties on energy imports, tech goods, and raw materials, especially from China, India, and Brazil.

The Fallout: Will This Undermine BRICS Momentum?

Trump’s re-election could slow BRICS+ progress, but not stop it. China and Russia have already launched their own versions of interbank payment networks (CIPS and SPFS), and India is scaling bilateral trade in rupees with Gulf states. Meanwhile, countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE have signed exploratory agreements to trade oil in non-dollar terms.

That said, if the U.S. deploys tariffs and pressures allies (like Japan, the EU, or South Korea) to avoid BRICS+ systems, the road to de-dollarisation gets bumpier.

Two potential scenarios:

1. Currency Cold War: The world bifurcates into dollar-aligned vs. BRICS-aligned systems, hurting global capital flows and complicating cross-border investment.

2. Backroom Deals: BRICS nations hedge their bets, quietly using dollars when necessary but continuing to push their agenda in energy and fintech zones.

A Global Tipping Point?

If the last five years have shown anything, it's that financial systems are becoming increasingly fragmented. With Trump back in office and BRICS doubling down on independence from U.S. control, we're entering a multi-currency world order.

For businesses and investors, this means two things:

• Expect more FX volatility and trade tension.

• Diversify into multi-currency reserves, commodities, and regional payment rails.